Stories of RecordThe living record of what matters.

← Back to the current story

Version history

Tropical Storm Isaias: forecast to become a hurricane and approach the US Gulf Coast

2 published versions. Every version stays readable at its own address, and nothing is removed without a correction note.

  1. Version 2Current · clarification

    Record closed: no longer updated, because the topic is outside the areas Stories of Record covers.

    • Status: Developing → Closed
  2. Version 1 · created

    Story created.

    • Timeline added: Tropical Depression Nine formed over the southern Gulf on Tuesday, with the hurricane center's first advisory at 2100 UTC giving maximum sustained winds near 55 km/h (35 mph) and forecasting it to strengthen quickly.
    • Timeline added: Tropical Depression Nine strengthened into Tropical Storm Isaias over the southern Gulf, with maximum sustained winds near 65 km/h (40 mph).
    • Confirmed: Tropical Depression Nine formed over the southern Gulf on Tuesday, with the hurricane center's first advisory at 2100 UTC giving maximum sustained winds near 55 km/h (35 mph) and forecasting it to strengthen quickly.
    • Confirmed: Tropical Depression Nine strengthened into Tropical Storm Isaias over the southern Gulf, with maximum sustained winds near 65 km/h (40 mph).
    • Confirmed: At 0900 UTC the centre was about 460 km (285 miles) west of Progreso, Mexico, and 935 km (580 miles) southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving east-northeast at about 13 km/h (8 mph).
    • Confirmed: The forecast peak is 95 knots (110 mph) over the central Gulf early on Friday. Wind shear is forecast to rise sharply before landfall, but the hurricane center now says Isaias is increasingly likely to be a significant hurricane when it reaches the coast.
    • Confirmed: No coastal watches or warnings were in effect, but the hurricane center said hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be needed for part of the northern Gulf coast later on Wednesday.
    • Confirmed: Coastal parts of the Bay of Campeche could get 2 to 4 inches of rain through Thursday, and swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents on the Yucatán Peninsula and later the Gulf Coast.
    • Confirmed: The hurricane center rates its confidence in the track as below average because models disagree widely, and its latest track moved east compared with the previous one.
    • Confirmed: The hurricane center notes that its track forecasts have erred by about 125 nautical miles on day 4 and 175 on day 5 on average.
    • Confirmed: Sea-surface temperatures of 30 to 31 °C and plenty of moisture favour strengthening in the short term.
    • Source added: Tropical Depression NINE (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
    • Source added: Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
    • Source added: Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
    • Source added: Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)